McDonald's Monopoly 2026: Detailed Odds of Winning Every Prize

The buzz around the internet is of the return of McDonald's Monopoly. A game that for many years was a fun tradition, if we ignore how it was later revealed to be laced in fraud due to a few bad actors. In the 1990s, I remember the fun of sticking collected pieces to the foldout gameboard sheet and feeling that I was this close to winning something monumental. The most I ever did win was a $50 gas gift card, but the free instant wins were always nice.

Now with the return, albeit with more mobile-centric digital aspects than ever before, I see a lot of press talking about it but with no detailed rundown of the actual odds of winning the multitude of prizes offered. I therefore have taken the time to compile a list of odds and present them in a clean and sortable table below. These have been compiled by combing through the exhaustively long Official Rules page on McDonald's website.

In Summary: Most of the even marginally valuable prizes including a turntable bundle or HDTV have comparable or worse odds than winning a major jackpot in a state lottery. We are talking 1 in 153,223,743 chance of winning a 77" TV at Best Buy. By contrast, winning $1 million in the Power Ball has a 1 in 11,688,054 chance. In other words, you are 13 times more likely to win a million dollars on a lottery ticket than to win a consumer television through McDonald's Monopoly.

  • Total Game Pieces Distributed: 644,657,971
  • Instant Win Food Prizes: 122,771,445 (1 in 5.25 Win Chance; 19.04%)
  • McDonald's Reward Point Prizes: 6,075,707 (1 in 107 Win Chance; 0.93%)
  • Overall Odds (Mostly Food): 1 in 5 (20%)

This year the prizes are generally split into the traditional physical pull pieces and, to a larger extent, online bonus redemptions through the app.

Game Piece Grand Prizes

The heavy hitters this year that require completing a property set include some fairly low value items with staggeringly poor odds. With many of these prizes numbering in the billions and tens of billions chance!

ID
Item
Value
Prizes
1 In…
Odds
Tickets
C1
Audio-Technica Turntable Bundle
$513
100
59,349,742
0.000001684927%
801, 802
C2
Polaris Vehicle (Three Choices)
$30,149
7
11,120,779,147
0.000000008992%
803, 804, 805
C3
1,000,000 American Airlines Miles
$24,700
5
13,199,250,724
0.000000007576%
806, 807, 808
C4
Universal Orlando Resort for Four
$5,016
15
4,399,750,411
0.000000022729%
809, 810, 811
C5
Kennedy Space Center VIP Tour and Trip
$9,550
21
3,119,992,100
0.000000032051%
812, 813, 814
C6
2026 Jeep Grand Cherokee
$52,475
5
13,103,966,820
0.000000007631%
815, 816, 817
C7
$10,000 Lowe's Shopping Spree
$10,000
25
2,620,793,364
0.000000038156%
818, 819, 820
C8
2026 Winnebago View 24D RV Motorhome
$253,883
1
5,934,960,419
0.000000016849%
821, 822
C9
Monopoly GO! Trip for Four
$50,000
6
60,111,334,122
0.000000001664%
823, 824, 825, 826
C10
Samsung 77" TV
$3,700
50
153,223,743
0.000000652640%
827, 828

Below is a complete Google Sheets spreadsheet containing all groups and categories of prizes and the odds, when available. These are derived from McDonald's own rules as of September 29, 2025.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qBu1BRtIjjhrn9zpwFDxx8igAC8lulilK0s0Dnyk0-M/edit?usp=sharing

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