The buzz around the internet is of the return of McDonald's Monopoly. A game that for many years was a fun tradition, if we ignore how it was later revealed to be laced in fraud due to a few bad actors. In the 1990s, I remember the fun of sticking collected pieces to the foldout gameboard sheet and feeling that I was this close to winning something monumental. The most I ever did win was a $50 gas gift card, but the free instant wins were always nice.
Now with the return, albeit with more mobile-centric digital aspects than ever before, I see a lot of press talking about it but with no detailed rundown of the actual odds of winning the multitude of prizes offered. I therefore have taken the time to compile a list of odds and present them in a clean and sortable table below. These have been compiled by combing through the exhaustively long Official Rules page on McDonald's website.
In Summary: Most of the even marginally valuable prizes including a turntable bundle or HDTV have comparable or worse odds than winning a major jackpot in a state lottery. We are talking 1 in 153,223,743 chance of winning a 77" TV at Best Buy. By contrast, winning $1 million in the Power Ball has a 1 in 11,688,054 chance. In other words, you are 13 times more likely to win a million dollars on a lottery ticket than to win a consumer television through McDonald's Monopoly.
- Total Game Pieces Distributed: 644,657,971
- Instant Win Food Prizes: 122,771,445 (1 in 5.25 Win Chance; 19.04%)
- McDonald's Reward Point Prizes: 6,075,707 (1 in 107 Win Chance; 0.93%)
- Overall Odds (Mostly Food): 1 in 5 (20%)
This year the prizes are generally split into the traditional physical pull pieces and, to a larger extent, online bonus redemptions through the app.
Game Piece Grand Prizes
The heavy hitters this year that require completing a property set include some fairly low value items with staggeringly poor odds. With many of these prizes numbering in the billions and tens of billions chance!
ID | Item | Value | Prizes | 1 In… | Odds | Tickets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C1 | Audio-Technica Turntable Bundle | $513 | 100 | 59,349,742 | 0.000001684927% | 801, 802 |
C2 | Polaris Vehicle (Three Choices) | $30,149 | 7 | 11,120,779,147 | 0.000000008992% | 803, 804, 805 |
C3 | 1,000,000 American Airlines Miles | $24,700 | 5 | 13,199,250,724 | 0.000000007576% | 806, 807, 808 |
C4 | Universal Orlando Resort for Four | $5,016 | 15 | 4,399,750,411 | 0.000000022729% | 809, 810, 811 |
C5 | Kennedy Space Center VIP Tour and Trip | $9,550 | 21 | 3,119,992,100 | 0.000000032051% | 812, 813, 814 |
C6 | 2026 Jeep Grand Cherokee | $52,475 | 5 | 13,103,966,820 | 0.000000007631% | 815, 816, 817 |
C7 | $10,000 Lowe's Shopping Spree | $10,000 | 25 | 2,620,793,364 | 0.000000038156% | 818, 819, 820 |
C8 | 2026 Winnebago View 24D RV Motorhome | $253,883 | 1 | 5,934,960,419 | 0.000000016849% | 821, 822 |
C9 | Monopoly GO! Trip for Four | $50,000 | 6 | 60,111,334,122 | 0.000000001664% | 823, 824, 825, 826 |
C10 | Samsung 77" TV | $3,700 | 50 | 153,223,743 | 0.000000652640% | 827, 828 |
Below is a complete Google Sheets spreadsheet containing all groups and categories of prizes and the odds, when available. These are derived from McDonald's own rules as of September 29, 2025.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qBu1BRtIjjhrn9zpwFDxx8igAC8lulilK0s0Dnyk0-M/edit?usp=sharing
you don't even list the winning piece, research well done